The future spread of HIV is subject to many uncertainties that may include the impacts of migration, urbanization, new prevention technologies and treatments, or even possible changes to the virus itself.

Through modelling projections, the Modelling Working Group will offer critical insight into “most likely” scenarios for the epidemic from this point forward, and anticipate “landscapes” around the future spread of HIV for consideration (across disciplines) in determining effective responses to the pandemic. The Modelling Group is chaired by Professor Geoff Garnett of Imperial College.

The Modeling Working group is exploring questions such as;

• What evidence is needed to understand the spread of the virus and how might this change as responses to the epidemic unfold?
• What are the impacts of migration, internal disruption, and urbanization?
• What are the impacts of HIV directly and indirectly on other diseases?
• What will be the impact of new prevention technologies and treatments?